CENTRE ON THE PROBLEMS OF ECOLOGY AND PRODUCTIVITY OF FORESTS

RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

Kovalev A.V., Ovchinnikova T.M. Development of Simulation Models for Dynamics of Forest Pest Numbers // Forest Science (Lesovedenie). 2010. No 2. P. 27-35 (in Russian).

Populations of forest phytophagous insects were studied by simulation methods. A computer supplement was made in order to develop simulation models describing the dynamics of some open-living insect species. The proposed models were implemented in module form, and the design of a model for a particular species was made using a small set of standard blocks and elements. All this allowed using “conveyer” methods of the same type for studying the dynamics of insect species numbers. Visual reflection of time series of data with the presentation of the main statistic characteristics (average, dispersion), as well as the reflection of the dynamics of population number on the phase level (number is reproduction coefficient) were used for the analysis of the results obtained. The known notion of Grossberger’s correlating integral, which allows estimating the number of significant factors of models, was used for testing the hypothesis of the determinate component of the time series. It determines a great prognostic value of the model. A methodology of developing the models was considered from the example of two eruptive species of insects (pests of forests in Central Siberia) – bordered white moth and Siberian moth. The results of modeling were analyzed; the models constructed were verified.

Simulation model, insects, pests, number dynamics.

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